Global warming due to greenhouse gases and atmospheric aerosols alter precipitation rates, but the influence on extreme precipitation by aerosols relative to greenhouse gases is still not well known. Here we use the simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project that enable us to compare changes in mean and extreme precipitation due to greenhouse gases with those due to black carbon and sulfate aerosols, using indicators for dry extremes as well as for moderate and very extreme precipitation. Generally, we find that the more extreme a precipitation event is, the more pronounced is its response relative to global mean surface temperature change, both for aerosol and greenhouse gas changes. Black carbon (BC) stands out with distinct behavior and large differences between individual models. Dry days become more frequent with BC-induced warming compared to greenhouse gases, but so does the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation. An increase in sulfate aerosols cools the surface and thereby the atmosphere, and thus induces a reduction in precipitation with a stronger effect on extreme than on mean precipitation. A better understanding and representation of these processes in models will provide knowledge for developing strategies for both climate change and air pollution mitigation.

由于温室气体和大气气溶胶引起的全球变暖会改变降水速率，但是相对于温室气体，气溶胶对极端降水的影响仍然未知。在这里，我们使用了降水动因与响应模型比较项目的模拟结果，使我们能够比较温室气体导致的平均和极端降水变化与黑碳和硫酸盐气溶胶引起的降水变化，并使用干燥极端以及中度和极端温度的指标非常极端的降水。通常，我们发现，对于气溶胶和温室气体变化，降水事件越极端，其对全球平均表面温度变化的响应就越明显。炭黑（BC）表现出独特的行为，并且各个模型之间存在很大差异。与温室气体相比，由于BC引起的变暖，干旱天变得更加频繁，但是极端降水的强度和频率也是如此。硫酸盐气溶胶的增加会冷却表面，从而冷却大气，从而导致降水减少，对极端天气的影响要强于对平均降水的影响。在模型中更好地理解和表示这些过程将为开发气候变化和减轻空气污染的策略提供知识。