BACKGROUND Pavlovian-to-instrumental transfer (PIT) describes the influence of conditioned stimuli on instrumental behaviors and is discussed as a key process underlying substance abuse. Here, we tested whether neural responses during alcohol-related PIT predict future relapse in alcohol-dependent patients and future drinking behavior in adolescents. METHODS Recently detoxified alcohol-dependent patients (n = 52) and young adults without dependence (n = 136) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging during an alcohol-related PIT paradigm, and their drinking behavior was assessed in a 12-month follow-up. To predict future drinking behavior from PIT activation patterns, we used a multivoxel classification scheme based on linear support vector machines. RESULTS When training and testing the classification scheme in patients, PIT activation patterns predicted future relapse with 71.2% accuracy. Feature selection revealed that classification was exclusively based on activation patterns in medial prefrontal cortex. To probe the generalizability of this functional magnetic resonance imaging-based prediction of future drinking behavior, we applied the support vector machine classifier that had been trained on patients to PIT functional magnetic resonance imaging data from adolescents. An analysis of cross-classification predictions revealed that those young social drinkers who were classified as abstainers showed a greater reduction in alcohol consumption at 12-month follow-up than those classified as relapsers (Δ = -24.4 ± 6.0 g vs. -5.7 ± 3.6 g; p = .019). CONCLUSIONS These results suggest that neural responses during PIT could constitute a generalized prognostic marker for future drinking behavior in established alcohol use disorder and in at-risk states.

中文翻译：

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巴甫洛夫到乐器转移期间的神经反应模式可预测酒精复发和年轻人饮酒

背景巴甫洛夫到乐器的转移 (PIT) 描述了条件刺激对乐器行为的影响，并被讨论为药物滥用的关键过程。在这里，我们测试了酒精相关 PIT 期间的神经反应是否可以预测酒精依赖患者的未来复发和青少年未来的饮酒行为。方法 最近戒毒的酒精依赖患者 (n = 52) 和没有依赖的年轻人 (n = 136) 在酒精相关 PIT 范式期间接受了功能性磁共振成像，并在 12 个月的随访中评估了他们的饮酒行为。为了从 PIT 激活模式预测未来的饮酒行为，我们使用了基于线性支持向量机的多体素分类方案。结果 在训练和测试患者的分类方案时，PIT 激活模式以 71.2% 的准确率预测未来的复发。特征选择表明，分类完全基于内侧前额叶皮层的激活模式。为了探究这种基于功能性磁共振成像对未来饮酒行为的预测的普遍性，我们将在患者身上训练的支持向量机分类器应用于青少年的 PIT 功能性磁共振成像数据。对交叉分类预测的分析显示，被归类为戒酒者的年轻社交饮酒者在 12 个月的随访中表现出比归类为复发者的饮酒量减少更多（Δ = -24.4 ± 6.0 g vs. -5.7 ± 3.6 克；p = .019）。