The impact of volcanic aerosols on recent global tropical cyclone (TC) activity is examined in observations, reanalysis, and models (the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 - CMIP5 multi-model, and one single model large ensemble). In observations, we find a reduction of TC activity only in the North Atlantic following the last three strong volcanic eruptions; that signal, however, cannot be clearly attributed to volcanoes, as all three eruptions were simultaneous with El Niño events. In reanalyses, we find no robust impact of volcanic eruptions on potential intensity (PI) and genesis indices. In models, we find a reduction in PI after volcanic eruptions in the historical simulations, but this effect is significantly reduced when differences between the model environment and observations are accounted for. Morever, the CMIP5 multi-model historical ensemble shows no effect of volcanic eruptions on a TC genesis index. Finally, there is no robust and consistent reduction in recent TC activity following recent volcanic eruptions in a large set of synthetic TCs downscaled from these simulations. Taken together, these results show that in recent eruptions volcanic aerosols did not reduce global TC activity.

火山气溶胶对近期全球热带气旋（TC）活动的影响已在观测，再分析和模型中进行了研究（耦合模型比较项目第5阶段-CMIP5多模型和一个单模型大型集合）。在观测中，我们发现仅在最近三次强烈的火山喷发之后，北大西洋的TC活性才有所降低。但是，由于三个火山喷发都是与厄尔尼诺事件同时发生的，因此该信号不能明确地归因于火山。在重新分析中，我们发现火山喷发对潜在强度（PI）和成因指数没有强大影响。在模型中，我们在历史模拟中发现火山喷发后的PI降低，但是当考虑到模型环境与观测值之间的差异时，这种影响会大大降低。而且，CMIP5多模型历史合集显示，火山喷发对TC发生指数没有影响。最后，在根据这些模拟方法缩小规模的大量合成TC中，最近的火山喷发后，近期TC的活动没有强劲而持续的减少。综上所述，这些结果表明，在最近的火山喷发中，火山气溶胶并未降低全球TC活动。