Through integrative assessment, experts evaluate the state of knowledge on complex problems relevant to societies. In this review, we take stock of recent advances and challenges, rooting our analysis in climate change assessment. In particular, we consider four priorities in assessment: (a) integrating diverse evidence including quantitative and qualitative results and understanding, (b) applying rigorous expert judgment to evidence and its uncertainties, (c) exploring widely ranging futures and their connections to ongoing choices and actions, and (d) incorporating interactions among experts and decision makers in assessment processes. Across these assessment priorities, we survey past experiences, current practices, and possibilities for future experimentation, innovation, and learning. In our current era of climate and broader global change, integrative assessment can bolster decisions about contested and uncertain futures. We consider both opportunities and pitfalls in synthesizing and encompassing e...

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迈向下一代评估

通过综合评估，专家评估与社会相关的复杂问题的知识状态。在这次审查中，我们评估了最近的进展和挑战，将我们的分析植根于气候变化评估。特别是，我们在评估中考虑了四个优先事项：(a) 整合各种证据，包括定量和定性结果和理解，(b) 对证据及其不确定性应用严格的专家判断，(c) 探索广泛的未来及其与正在进行的选择的联系和行动，以及 (d) 在评估过程中纳入专家和决策者之间的互动。在这些评估优先事项中，我们调查了过去的经验、当前的做法以及未来实验、创新和学习的可能性。在我们当前的气候和更广泛的全球变化时代，综合评估可以支持有关有争议和不确定的未来的决策。我们考虑综合和包含电子产品的机会和陷阱...