Integrated model systems that simulate land use and land cover change (LUCC) and associated changes of ecosystem services (ES) are increasingly important for supporting policies and management decisions. However, only few model frameworks exist that consider policy options as drivers of future LUCC and ES simultaneously. We present a modeling procedure that predicts policy-induced LUCC and ES through a combination of cellular automata (CA) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). We employed this procedure to assess the efficiency of alternative policy instruments including direct payments and command-and-control regulations in mountain watersheds of South Korea. Our approach successfully captures spatial patterns of LUCC, hydrological processes, and the associated gains and losses in ES as well as potential negative externalities (“leakage” effects). Our modeling procedure provides an informative and robust basis for the development of decision support systems for mountain watersheds, where water provision and regulation are of particular concern.

模拟土地使用和土地覆被变化（LUCC）以及相关的生态系统服务变化（ES）的集成模型系统对于支持政策和管理决策越来越重要。但是，只有很少的模型框架将政策选项同时视为未来LUCC和ES的驱动力。我们提出了一种建模程序，该程序通过单元自动机（CA）与土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）的组合预测由政策引起的LUCC和ES。我们采用了此程序来评估其他政策工具（包括直接付款和韩国山区流域的命令控制条例）的效率。我们的方法成功捕获了LUCC，水文过程，ES的相关损益以及潜在的负面外部性（“泄漏”效应）。我们的建模程序为山区流域的决策支持系统的开发提供了信息丰富且强大的基础，在山区流域，供水和法规特别受到关注。