Considering the quarterly fluctuation characteristics of global smartphone shipment, a novel and improved Verhulst model was proposed for forecasting smartphone shipments under different industry life cycle scenarios. The number of waste smartphones between 2007 and 2039 was estimated via using the lifespan distribution of electronics. The weight of the disposals was then converted by using product data collected from 2766 sampled smartphone devices. It was found that under the scenario of maturity, approximately 126,000 tons critical raw materials (CRMs) were expected to be recovered by 2039. According to the CRMs lists published by China and the European Union, the recoverable amount compared to about 62,000 tons and 64,000 tons, respectively. Enhancing the recycling of waste smartphones worldwide, will provide a new option to ensure an important part of the stability of the CRMs supply chains.