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Modeling SARS-CoV-2 True Infections in Catalonia through a Digital Twin
Advanced Theory and Simulations ( IF 3.3 ) Pub Date : 2023-05-12 , DOI: 10.1002/adts.202200917
Pau Fonseca i Casas, Joan Garcia i Subirana, Victor Garcia i Carrasco

A dynamic view of the evolution of the infections of SARS-CoV-2 in Catalonia using a Digital Twin approach that forecasts the true infection curve is presented. The forecast model incorporates the vaccination process, the confinement, and the detection rate, and virtually allows to consider any nonpharmaceutical intervention, enabling to understand their effects on the disease's containment while forecasting the trend of the pandemic. A continuous validation process of the model is performed using real data and an optimization model that automatically provides information regarding the effects of the containment actions on the population. To simplify this validation process, a formal graphical language that simplifies the interaction with the different specialists and an easy modification of the model parameters are used. The Digital Twin of the pandemic in Catalonia provides a forecast of the future trend of the SARS-CoV-2 spread and information regarding the true cases and effectiveness of the NPIs to control the SARS-CoV-2 spread over the population. This approach can be applied easily to other regions and can become an excellent tool for decision-making.

中文翻译:

通过数字孪生对加泰罗尼亚的 SARS-CoV-2 真实感染进行建模

提出了使用数字孪生方法预测真实感染曲线的加泰罗尼亚 SARS-CoV-2 感染演变的动态视图。该预测模型结合了疫苗接种过程、限制和检测率,并且实际上允许考虑任何非药物干预措施,从而能够在预测大流行趋势的同时了解其对疾病控制的影响。使用真实数据和优化模型来执行模型的连续验证过程,该模型自动提供有关遏制行动对人口影响的信息。为了简化这个验证过程,使用了一种正式的图形语言,可以简化与不同专家的交互,并且可以轻松修改模型参数。加泰罗尼亚大流行的数字孪生提供了对 SARS-CoV-2 传播未来趋势的预测,以及有关真实病例和 NPI 控制 SARS-CoV-2 在人群中传播的有效性的信息。这种方法可以很容易地应用于其他地区,并可以成为决策的绝佳工具。
更新日期:2023-05-12
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