El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shapes extreme weather globally, causing myriad socioeconomic impacts, but whether economies recover from ENSO events and how anthropogenic changes to ENSO will affect the global economy are unknown. Here we show that El Niño persistently reduces country-level economic growth, attributing $4.1T and $5.7T in global income losses to the 1982–83 and 1997–98 events, respectively. Increased ENSO amplitude and teleconnections from warming cause $84T in 21st-century economic losses in an emissions scenario consistent with current mitigation pledges, but these effects are shaped by stochastic variation in the sequence of El Niño and La Niña events. Our results highlight the sensitivity of the economy to climate variability independent of warming and the potential for future losses due to anthropogenic intensification of such variability.

中文翻译：

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厄尔尼诺对全球经济增长的持续影响

厄尔尼诺-南方涛动 (ENSO) 在全球塑造极端天气，造成无数社会经济影响，但经济是否会从 ENSO 事件中复苏以及 ENSO 的人为变化将如何影响全球经济尚不清楚。在这里，我们表明厄尔尼诺持续降低国家层面的经济增长，将 4.1T 美元和 5.7T 美元的全球收入损失分别归因于 1982-83 年和 1997-98 年的事件。在符合当前减排承诺的排放情景中，ENSO 幅度的增加和变暖引起的遥相关导致 21 世纪经济损失 84T 美元，但这些影响是由厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件序列的随机变化决定的。