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Environmental change and ecosystem functioning drive transitions in social-ecological systems: A stylized modelling approach
Ecological Economics ( IF 7 ) Pub Date : 2023-05-13 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2023.107861
Maarten B. Eppinga, Hugo J. de Boer, Martin O. Reader, John M. Anderies, Maria J. Santos

Sustainable management of social-ecological systems requires an understanding of how anthropogenic climate- and land use change may disrupt interactions between human societies and the ecosystem processes they depend on. In this study, we expand an existing stylized social-ecological system model by explicitly considering how urbanizing societies may become less dependent on local ecosystem functioning. This expansion is motivated by a previously developed conceptual framework suggesting that societies may reside in either a green loop and be strongly dependent on local ecosystem processes, or in a red loop where this dependency is weaker due to imports of natural resources from elsewhere. Analyzing the feasibility and stability of local social-ecological system states over a wide range of environmental and socio-economic conditions, we observed dynamics consistent with the notion of green loop-dominated and red loop-dominated societies comprising alternate stable social-ecological states. Based on systems' inherent dependencies on local ecosystem processes, responses to environmental change could comprise either transitions between green loop- and red loop-dominated states, or collapse of either of these states. Our quantitative model provides an internally consistent mapping of green loop- and red loop-dominated states, as well as transitions between or collapses of these states, along a gradient of environmental conditions.



中文翻译:

环境变化和生态系统功能驱动社会生态系统的转变:程式化的建模方法

社会生态系统的可持续管理需要了解人为气候和土地利用变化可能如何破坏人类社会与其所依赖的生态系统过程之间的相互作用。在这项研究中,我们通过明确考虑城市化社会如何减少对当地生态系统功能的依赖,扩展了现有的程式化社会生态系统模型。这种扩展是由先前开发的概念框架推动的,该框架表明社会可能处于绿色循环中并强烈依赖当地生态系统过程,或者处于红色循环中,由于从其他地方进口自然资源,这种依赖性较弱。分析当地社会生态系统状态在广泛的环境和社会经济条件下的可行性和稳定性,我们观察到的动态与由交替稳定的社会生态状态组成的绿色循环主导和红色循环主导的社会的概念一致。基于系统对当地生态系统过程的内在依赖性,对环境变化的响应可能包括绿色循环和红色循环主导状态之间的转换,或者这些状态中的任何一种的崩溃。我们的定量模型提供了绿色循环和红色循环主导状态的内部一致映射,以及这些状态之间的转换或崩溃,沿着环境条件的梯度。对环境变化的反应可能包括在绿环和红环主导状态之间的过渡,或者这些状态中任何一个的崩溃。我们的定量模型提供了绿色循环和红色循环主导状态的内部一致映射,以及这些状态之间的转换或崩溃,沿着环境条件的梯度。对环境变化的反应可能包括在绿环和红环主导状态之间的过渡,或者这些状态中任何一个的崩溃。我们的定量模型提供了绿色循环和红色循环主导状态的内部一致映射,以及这些状态之间的转换或崩溃,沿着环境条件的梯度。

更新日期:2023-05-13
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