Plant disease outbreaks pose significant risks to global food security and environmental sustainability worldwide, and result in the loss of primary productivity and biodiversity that negatively impact the environmental and socio-economic conditions of affected regions. Climate change further increases outbreak risks by altering pathogen evolution and host–pathogen interactions and facilitating the emergence of new pathogenic strains. Pathogen range can shift, increasing the spread of plant diseases in new areas. In this Review, we examine how plant disease pressures are likely to change under future climate scenarios and how these changes will relate to plant productivity in natural and agricultural ecosystems. We explore current and future impacts of climate change on pathogen biogeography, disease incidence and severity, and their effects on natural ecosystems, agriculture and food production. We propose that amendment of the current conceptual framework and incorporation of eco-evolutionary theories into research could improve our mechanistic understanding and prediction of pathogen spread in future climates, to mitigate the future risk of disease outbreaks. We highlight the need for a science–policy interface that works closely with relevant intergovernmental organizations to provide effective monitoring and management of plant disease under future climate scenarios, to ensure long-term food and nutrient security and sustainability of natural ecosystems.

植物病害爆发对全球粮食安全和环境可持续性构成重大风险，并导致初级生产力和生物多样性丧失，对受影响地区的环境和社会经济状况产生负面影响。气候变化通过改变病原体进化和宿主与病原体之间的相互作用并促进新致病菌株的出现，进一步增加了疫情爆发的风险。病原体范围可能会发生变化，从而增加植物病害在新地区的传播。在这篇综述中，我们研究了在未来气候情景下植物病害压力可能如何变化，以及这些变化将如何与自然和农业生态系统中的植物生产力相关。我们探讨气候变化当前和未来对病原体生物地理学、疾病发病率和严重程度的影响，及其对自然生态系统、农业和粮食生产的影响。我们建议修改当前的概念框架并将生态进化理论纳入研究中可以提高我们对未来气候中病原体传播的机制的理解和预测，以减轻未来疾病爆发的风险。我们强调需要建立一个与相关政府间组织密切合作的科学政策界面，以在未来气候情景下对植物病害进行有效监测和管理，以确保长期粮食和营养安全以及自然生态系统的可持续性。