This paper studies the economic consequences of orbital debris for commercial outer-space activities. Spacecraft launches and other outer-space human activities produce pollution (i.e., orbital debris), which represent a hazardous negative externality increasing the risk of collision and the destruction of satellites. We regard outer space as a global common resource, where firms operating satellites maximize profits and do not internalize the social cost of orbital pollution. We develop a dynamic investment model for satellites and simulate the calibrated model to estimate how debris affects the optimal quantity of satellites and launches, and the number of satellites destroyed by collisions. We find that the optimal quantity of satellites is a negative function of the amount of debris. The paper derives a simple expression for the maximum number of satellites to prevent the Kessler syndrome. For the baseline calibration of the model, the estimated threshold for the maximum number of satellites in orbit is about 72,000. The model is simulated to study the effects of a decline in the launch cost and the increasing number of satellites per launch.

本文研究了轨道碎片对商业外层空间活动的经济影响。航天器发射和其他外层空间人类活动会产生污染（即轨道碎片），这是一种有害的负外部性，增加了碰撞和卫星毁坏的风险。我们将外层空间视为全球共同资源，运营卫星的公司在这里实现利润最大化，不会将轨道污染的社会成本内部化。我们开发了卫星动态投资模型并模拟校准模型，以估计碎片如何影响卫星和发射的最佳数量，以及碰撞摧毁的卫星数量。我们发现卫星的最佳数量是碎片数量的负函数。该论文推导出了一个简单的表达式，用于防止凯斯勒综合症的最大卫星数量。对于模型的基线校准，最大在轨卫星数的估计阈值约为 72,000。该模型被模拟以研究发射成本下降和每次发射卫星数量增加的影响。