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Predictive accuracy of Static-99R across different racial/ethnic groups: A meta-analysis.
Law and Human Behavior ( IF 3.870 ) Pub Date : 2023-02-01 , DOI: 10.1037/lhb0000517
Simran Ahmed 1 , Seung C Lee 2 , L Maaike Helmus 1
Affiliation  

OBJECTIVE The overrepresentation of numerous racial/ethnic groups in the criminal legal system warrants examination of the cross-cultural applicability of risk assessment tools. Static-99R is a tool used in diverse countries to assess sexual recidivism risk. We conducted a meta-analysis on the predictive accuracy of Static-99R across different racial/ethnic groups. HYPOTHESES No hypotheses were made regarding discrimination, given that past research could support hypotheses of differential or equivalent accuracy. We hypothesized that Indigenous individuals would score higher on Static-99R than non-Indigenous or White individuals. METHOD Our search identified 18 eligible documents (from 17 distinct studies) with 41 nonoverlapping effect sizes. These 17 studies examined the predictive accuracy of Static-99R with racially/ethnically diverse men charged with or convicted of sexually motivated offenses. We report analyses using both fixed-effect and random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS Indigenous and Black individuals scored significantly higher on Static-99R than their non-Indigenous or White counterparts, with small effect sizes. For discrimination, area under the curve (AUC) values were generally moderate-to-large and statistically significant for all groups in both fixed-effect and random-effects analyses. Within-study subgroup analyses indicated significantly lower accuracy for Indigenous and Hispanic individuals compared with White/non-Indigenous samples (though for Hispanic individuals, this finding was significant only in the fixed-effect analyses). No statistically significant differences in accuracy were found between White and Black individuals. Static-99R significantly predicted recidivism with large effect sizes across two samples of Asian individuals. Two studies supported calibration across Black, White, and Hispanic individuals. Two studies examining calibration of Static-99R for Indigenous individuals had mixed findings. CONCLUSIONS Given a small number of studies and limitations with both the fixed- and random-effects analyses, readers should interpret findings regarding Hispanic individuals with caution. The analyses clearly found significant but lower accuracy for Static-99R with Indigenous individuals. Potential reasons for this differential accuracy are discussed, along with limitations of the meta-analysis and suggestions for research and practice. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译:

Static-99R 在不同种族/族裔群体中的预测准确性:一项荟萃分析。

目标 众多种族/族裔群体在刑事法律体系中的比例过高,需要检查风险评估工具的跨文化适用性。Static-99R 是一种在不同国家/地区用于评估性累犯风险的工具。我们对 Static-99R 在不同种族/族裔群体中的预测准确性进行了荟萃分析。假设 没有关于歧视的假设,因为过去的研究可以支持差异或等效准确性的假设。我们假设土著人在 Static-99R 上的得分高于非土著人或白人。方法 我们的搜索确定了 18 份符合条件的文件(来自 17 项不同的研究),具有 41 个非重叠效应大小。这 17 项研究检验了 Static-99R 对被控犯有性动机犯罪或被定罪的不同种族/族裔男性的预测准确性。我们使用固定效应和随机效应荟萃分析报告分析。结果 土著和黑人个体在 Static-99R 上的得分明显高于非土著或白人个体,但效应量较小。对于歧视,曲线下面积 (AUC) 值通常在固定效应和随机效应分析中对所有组都具有中等到较大的统计显着性。研究内亚组分析表明,与白人/非土著样本相比,土著和西班牙裔个体的准确性明显较低(尽管对于西班牙裔个体,这一发现仅在固定效应分析中具有显着性)。白人和黑人之间的准确性在统计上没有显着差异。Static-99R 显着预测了两个亚洲个体样本的累犯,其效应量很大。两项研究支持对黑人、白人和西班牙裔个体进行校准。两项针对原住民个体检查 Static-99R 校准的研究结果不一。结论 鉴于固定效应分析和随机效应分析的研究数量较少且存在局限性,读者应谨慎解释有关西班牙裔个体的研究结果。分析清楚地发现,Static-99R 对土著个体具有显着但较低的准确性。讨论了这种差异准确性的潜在原因,以及荟萃分析的局限性以及对研究和实践的建议。
更新日期:2023-02-01
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