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Surface warming and wetting due to methane’s long-wave radiative effects muted by short-wave absorption
Nature Geoscience ( IF 18.3 ) Pub Date : 2023-03-16 , DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01144-z
Robert J. Allen, Xueying Zhao, Cynthia A. Randles, Ryan J. Kramer, Bjørn H. Samset, Christopher J. Smith

Although greenhouse gases absorb primarily long-wave radiation, they also absorb short-wave radiation. Recent studies have highlighted the importance of methane short-wave absorption, which enhances its stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing by up to ~ 15%. The corresponding climate impacts, however, have been only indirectly evaluated and thus remain largely unquantified. Here we present a systematic, unambiguous analysis using one model and separate simulations with and without methane short-wave absorption. We find that methane short-wave absorption counteracts ~30% of the surface warming associated with its long-wave radiative effects. An even larger impact occurs for precipitation as methane short-wave absorption offsets ~60% of the precipitation increase relative to its long-wave radiative effects. The methane short-wave-induced cooling is due largely to cloud rapid adjustments, including increased low-level clouds, which enhance the reflection of incoming short-wave radiation, and decreased high-level clouds, which enhance outgoing long-wave radiation. The cloud responses, in turn, are related to the profile of atmospheric solar heating and corresponding changes in temperature and relative humidity. Despite our findings, methane remains a potent contributor to global warming, and efforts to reduce methane emissions are vital for keeping global warming well below 2 °C above preindustrial values.



中文翻译:

由于甲烷的长波辐射效应被短波吸收减弱,表面变暖和变湿

尽管温室气体主要吸收长波辐射,但它们也吸收短波辐射。最近的研究强调了甲烷短波吸收的重要性,这将其平流层调整的辐射强迫提高了约 15%。然而,相应的气候影响只是间接评估,因此在很大程度上仍未量化。在这里,我们使用一个模型进行系统的、明确的分析,并分别进行有和没有甲烷短波吸收的模拟。我们发现甲烷短波吸收抵消了约 30% 与其长波辐射效应相关的地表变暖。由于甲烷短波吸收相对于其长波辐射效应抵消了约 60% 的降水增加,因此对降水的影响甚至更大。甲烷短波引起的冷却主要是由于云的快速调整,包括增加低层云,增强入射短波辐射的反射,减少高层云,增强出射长波辐射。反过来,云响应与大气太阳加热的分布以及温度和相对湿度的相应变化有关。尽管有我们的发现,但甲烷仍然是全球变暖的一个重要因素,减少甲烷排放的努力对于将全球变暖幅度控制在比工业化前值高 2 °C 以下至关重要。与大气太阳加热的分布以及温度和相对湿度的相应变化有关。尽管有我们的发现,但甲烷仍然是全球变暖的一个重要因素,减少甲烷排放的努力对于将全球变暖幅度控制在比工业化前值高 2 °C 以下至关重要。与大气太阳加热的分布以及温度和相对湿度的相应变化有关。尽管有我们的发现,但甲烷仍然是全球变暖的一个重要因素,减少甲烷排放的努力对于将全球变暖幅度控制在比工业化前值高 2 °C 以下至关重要。

更新日期:2023-03-17
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