In this study, we examine the effects of geopolitical risk on corporate payout policy. Exploiting a news-based index of geopolitical risk, we find that firms adopt a more conservative payout policy by reducing share repurchases in response to greater geopolitical risk, whereas the effects of geopolitical risk on cash dividends are insignificant. Further analysis suggests that cash flow uncertainty and financial distress risk are two potential channels through which geopolitical risk affects corporate payout policy. We also show that the effects of geopolitical risk on share repurchase are more pronounced for firms with greater exposure to product market competition and those facing higher threats of financial distress. Overall, our study emphasizes the implications of geopolitical risk for corporate payout choice.

在本研究中，我们考察了地缘政治风险对企业派息政策的影响。利用基于新闻的地缘政治风险指数，我们发现公司通过减少股票回购来应对更大的地缘政治风险，采取更保守的派息政策，而地缘政治风险对现金股息的影响微不足道。进一步分析表明，现金流不确定性和财务困境风险是地缘政治风险影响企业派息政策的两个潜在渠道。我们还表明，地缘政治风险对股票回购的影响对于产品市场竞争程度更高的公司和面临更高财务困境威胁的公司更为明显。总体而言，我们的研究强调了地缘政治风险对企业支付选择的影响。