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“The impact of energy efficiency and decarbonisation policies on the European road transport sector”
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice ( IF 6.4 ) Pub Date : 2023-03-02 , DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2023.103623
Sofia Tsemekidi Tzeiranaki, Marina Economidou, Paolo Bertoldi, Christian Thiel, Georgios Fontaras, Enrico Luca Clementi, Camilo Franco De Los Rios

This paper analyses historical energy consumption trends of the EU road transport sector and examines the role of key determinants, such as economic and population growth, fuel prices, passenger and tonne-kilometres and vehicle fleet characteristics. In light of the EU 2030 and 2050 energy and climate targets, the paper assesses the energy efficiency and decarbonisation progress from 2000 to 2018. A detailed analysis is carried out using a balanced panel dataset from 1995 to 2018 and a test for causality between energy consumption and the selected explanatory variables. The results suggest that the declining trend of the normalised energy consumption of cars, trucks and light vehicles, which both dropped significantly in 2018 compared to 2000, can be related to energy efficiency and decarbonisation policies adopted by the EU and its Member States over the studied period. Decomposition analysis based on the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index technique confirms the role of energy efficiency gains in curbing energy consumption of road transport, even with the strong upward force exerted by motorisation and population effects, especially in passenger transport. It also suggests that during the recession years (2008–2013), road transport consumption fell due to a sharp drop in the mileage but not in the motorisation effect, which continued to drive up consumption even in this period. Despite some positive developments, the increased demand for road transportation has led to continued energy consumption growth. This has been further compounded by differences between real-world and vehicle certification fuel consumption data. The article highlights the need to strengthen the current policy framework at the EU and MS levels in the next decade to reach the long-term decarbonisation targets. In the context of these targets, a more in-depth investigation of the real impact of energy efficiency and decarbonisation efforts will also become increasingly important.



中文翻译:

“能源效率和脱碳政策对欧洲道路运输部门的影响”

本文分析了欧盟道路运输部门的历史能源消耗趋势,并研究了经济和人口增长、燃料价格、乘客和吨公里以及车队特征等关键决定因素的作用。结合欧盟2030年和2050年的能源和气候目标,本文评估了2000年至2018年的能源效率和脱碳进展。使用1995年至2018年的平衡面板数据集进行了详细分析,并检验了能源消耗之间的因果关系和选定的解释变量。结果表明,与 2000 年相比,2018 年轿车、卡车和轻型车辆的标准化能耗下降趋势明显,可能与欧盟及其成员国在研究期间采用的能源效率和脱碳政策有关。基于对数均值 Divisia 指数技术的分解分析证实了能源效率提高在抑制道路交通能源消耗方面的作用,即使机动化和人口效应带来强大的上升力,尤其是在客运方面。它还表明,在经济衰退时期(2008-2013 年),道路交通消费下降是由于里程数的急剧下降,而不是机动化效应,即使在这一时期仍继续推高消费。尽管出现了一些积极的发展,但对公路运输的需求增加导致能源消耗持续增长。现实世界和车辆认证油耗数据之间的差异进一步加剧了这种情况。文章强调了在未来十年内加强欧盟和成员国层面现行政策框架的必要性,以实现长期脱碳目标。在这些目标的背景下,对能源效率和脱碳工作的实际影响进行更深入的调查也将变得越来越重要。

更新日期:2023-03-03
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