With the rapid development of national infrastructure construction, the water inrush disaster of “strong burst, high water pressure and large flow” is more and more frequent in the construction process. To achieve high-precision prediction of tunnel water inflow, based on the Yue Longmen Tunnel, according to the structural plane detection data in the study area, combined with the Monte Carlo algorithm and using “parent-daughter” and “step–structure” correction mode, this paper constructs a random deterministic three-dimensional fracture network seepage model. Based on the three-dimensional fracture network seepage model and the principle of flow balance, the water inflow of each mileage section of the Yue Longmen Tunnel is solved by numerical calculation method, and good results are obtained through comparison and verification. The research results have important theoretical significance and engineering application value for tunnel water inflow prediction.

随着国家基础设施建设的快速发展，施工过程中“强突、高水压、大流量”的突水灾害越来越频繁。为实现隧道涌水量的高精度预测，以越龙门隧道为依托，根据研究区结构面检测数据，结合蒙特卡罗算法，采用“父-女”和“阶梯-结构”校正模式下，本文构建了随机确定性三维裂缝网络渗流模型。基于三维缝网渗流模型和流量平衡原理，采用数值计算方法对越龙门隧道各里程段涌水量进行求解，通过对比验证取得了较好的效果。