This paper estimates the impact of public guarantees on crisis predictive indicators among small and mid-size enterprises (SMEs). We use a confidential database provided by the Italian Ministry of Economic Development on the universe of guarantees granted by the Central Guarantee Fund. We apply difference-in-difference regressions and propensity-score matching estimators to a sample of approximately 40,000 SMEs over the 2010–2018 period. We find that obtaining a public guarantee improves profitability both in the short- and medium-term. On the other hand, SMEs’ financial health worsens in the short run, but financial burdens are alleviated 2 years after the issuance of a guarantee. The economic and financial effects of government-backed loans are amplified for micro-sized firms, companies operating in the service sector and direct guarantees. Our results can thus support public authorities in designing credit guarantee schemes capable of preventing SMEs’ zombification and protecting them from the risk of debt overhang.

本文估计了公共担保对中小企业 (SME) 危机预测指标的影响。我们使用意大利经济发展部提供的关于中央担保基金授予的担保范围的机密数据库。我们对 2010-2018 年期间约 40,000 家中小企业的样本应用了差分回归和倾向得分匹配估计量。我们发现，获得公共担保可以提高短期和中期的盈利能力。另一方面，中小企业的财务状况在短期内恶化，但在提供担保2年后财务负担有所减轻。政府支持贷款对微型企业、服务业公司和直接担保的经济和金融影响被放大。