This study investigates the effect of oil price uncertainty on unemployment rates by race and ethnicity. Oil price uncertainty is measured by using two alternative approaches: (1) implied oil price option volatility and (2) a structural vector autoregression with multivariate GARCH-in-Mean with the errors distributed multivariate-t. The findings indicate that increased oil price uncertainty strongly increases unemployment rates, with the magnitude of the effect much larger for Blacks and Hispanics than for Whites. The effect is economically significant, with an average drag of oil price uncertainty on the total unemployment rate of about 13 basis points, and about 35 basis during episodes of high uncertainty. The effect on Black and Hispanic unemployment rates is about twice as large. Among teenagers, the effects of uncertainty on unemployment rates is much more pronounced, led by Black teens, Hispanics teens and White teens. Robustness results using implied oil price option volatility after controlling for news-based measures of policy uncertainty further confirms our results. Additional analysis along gender lines reveals that the response of male unemployment rates to oil price uncertainty shocks tends to be larger in magnitude than the response for female unemployment rates of the same race or ethnicity. Overall, the results suggest that uncertainty not only suppresses employment, but that uncertainty also worsens racial disparities in employment.

本研究调查了油价不确定性对不同种族和族裔失业率的影响。石油价格的不确定性是通过使用两种替代方法来衡量的：(1) 隐含的石油价格期权波动率和 (2) 具有多元 GARCH-in-Mean 的结构向量自回归，误差分布为 multivariate-t。调查结果表明，石油价格不确定性的增加会大大增加失业率，对黑人和西班牙裔的影响程度远大于对白人的影响。这种影响在经济上是显着的，油价不确定性对总失业率的平均拖累约为 13 个基点，在高度不确定性时期约为 35 个基点。对黑人和西班牙裔失业率的影响大约是其两倍。在青少年中，不确定性对失业率的影响更为明显，其中以黑人青少年、西班牙裔青少年和白人青少年为首。在控制基于新闻的政策不确定性措施后，使用隐含油价期权波动率得出的稳健性结果进一步证实了我们的结果。其他按性别划分的分析表明，男性失业率对油价不确定性冲击的反应幅度往往大于对同一种族或民族的女性失业率的反应。总体而言，结果表明不确定性不仅会抑制就业，而且不确定性还会加剧就业中的种族差异。在控制基于新闻的政策不确定性措施后，使用隐含油价期权波动率得出的稳健性结果进一步证实了我们的结果。其他按性别划分的分析表明，男性失业率对油价不确定性冲击的反应幅度往往大于对同一种族或民族的女性失业率的反应。总体而言，结果表明不确定性不仅会抑制就业，而且不确定性还会加剧就业中的种族差异。在控制基于新闻的政策不确定性措施后，使用隐含油价期权波动率得出的稳健性结果进一步证实了我们的结果。其他按性别划分的分析表明，男性失业率对油价不确定性冲击的反应幅度往往大于对同一种族或民族的女性失业率的反应。总体而言，结果表明不确定性不仅会抑制就业，而且不确定性还会加剧就业中的种族差异。