ABSTRACT

A mid-century net zero target creates a challenge for reducing the emissions of emissions-intensive, trade-exposed sectors with high cost mitigation options. These sectors include aluminium, cement, chemicals, iron and steel, lime, pulp and paper and petroleum refining. Available studies agree that decarbonization of these sectors is possible by mid-century if more ambitious policies are implemented soon. Existing carbon pricing policies have had limited impact on the emissions of these sectors because their marginal abatement costs almost always exceed the tax rate or allowance price. But emissions trading systems with free allowance allocations to emissions-intensive, trade-exposed sectors have minimized the adverse economic impacts and associated leakage. Internationally coordinated policies are unlikely, so implementing more ambitious policies creates a risk of leakage. This paper presents policy packages a country can implement to accelerate emission reduction by these sectors with minimal risk of leakage. To comply with international trade law the policy packages differ for producers whose goods compete with imports in the domestic market and producers whose goods are exported. Carbon pricing is a critical component of each package due its ability to minimize the risk of adverse economic impacts on domestic industry, support innovation and generate revenue. The revenue can be used to assist groups adversely impacted by the domestic price and production changes due to carbon pricing and to build public support for the policies.

Key policy insights

• A country with a mid-century net zero GHG emission target likely will need to implement more ambitious mitigation policies soon for emission-intensive sectors such as aluminium, cement, chemicals, iron and steel, lime, pulp and paper and petroleum refining.

• More ambitious mitigation policies are likely to vary by country and be implemented at different times, creating a risk of leakage due to industrial production shifts to other jurisdictions.

• More ambitious mitigation policy packages, compatible with international trade law, that a country can implement to reduce emissions from these sectors with minimal risk of leakage are available but differ for producers whose goods compete with imports in the domestic market and those whose goods are exported.

• Carbon pricing is a critical component of each package due its ability to minimize the risk of adverse economic impacts on domestic producers, support innovation and generate revenue.

摘要

本世纪中叶的净零目标为减少具有高成本缓解方案的排放密集型、贸易相关部门的排放带来了挑战。这些行业包括铝、水泥、化工、钢铁、石灰、纸浆和造纸以及炼油。现有研究一致认为，如果尽快实施更雄心勃勃的政策，这些行业有可能在本世纪中叶实现脱碳。现有的碳定价政策对这些部门的排放影响有限，因为它们的边际减排成本几乎总是超过税率或配额价格。但是，向排放密集型、贸易相关部门免费分配配额的排放交易系统最大限度地减少了不利的经济影响和相关的泄漏。国际协调政策不太可能，因此，实施更雄心勃勃的政策会产生泄漏风险。本文介绍了一个国家可以实施的一揽子政策，以加速这些部门的减排，同时将泄漏风险降至最低。为遵守国际贸易法，针对产品在国内市场与进口产品竞争的生产商和产品出口的生产商，一揽子政策有所不同。碳定价是每个一揽子计划的重要组成部分，因为它能够最大限度地降低对国内工业造成不利经济影响的风险，支持创新并产生收入。收入可用于帮助因碳定价而受到国内价格和生产变化不利影响的群体，并建立公众对政策的支持。本文介绍了一个国家可以实施的一揽子政策，以加速这些部门的减排，同时将泄漏风险降至最低。为遵守国际贸易法，针对产品在国内市场与进口产品竞争的生产商和产品出口的生产商，一揽子政策有所不同。碳定价是每个一揽子计划的重要组成部分，因为它能够最大限度地降低对国内工业造成不利经济影响的风险，支持创新并产生收入。收入可用于帮助因碳定价而受到国内价格和生产变化不利影响的群体，并建立公众对政策的支持。本文介绍了一个国家可以实施的一揽子政策，以加速这些部门的减排，同时将泄漏风险降至最低。为遵守国际贸易法，针对产品在国内市场与进口产品竞争的生产商和产品出口的生产商，一揽子政策有所不同。碳定价是每个一揽子计划的重要组成部分，因为它能够最大限度地降低对国内工业造成不利经济影响的风险，支持创新并产生收入。收入可用于帮助因碳定价而受到国内价格和生产变化不利影响的群体，并建立公众对政策的支持。为遵守国际贸易法，针对产品在国内市场与进口产品竞争的生产商和产品出口的生产商，一揽子政策有所不同。碳定价是每个一揽子计划的重要组成部分，因为它能够最大限度地降低对国内工业造成不利经济影响的风险，支持创新并产生收入。收入可用于帮助因碳定价而受到国内价格和生产变化不利影响的群体，并建立公众对政策的支持。为遵守国际贸易法，针对产品在国内市场与进口产品竞争的生产商和产品出口的生产商，一揽子政策有所不同。碳定价是每个一揽子计划的重要组成部分，因为它能够最大限度地降低对国内工业造成不利经济影响的风险，支持创新并产生收入。收入可用于帮助因碳定价而受到国内价格和生产变化不利影响的群体，并建立公众对政策的支持。

关键政策见解

• 一个拥有本世纪中叶温室气体净零排放目标的国家可能需要尽快针对铝、水泥、化学品、钢铁、石灰、纸浆和造纸以及炼油等排放密集型行业实施更雄心勃勃的减缓政策。

• 更雄心勃勃的缓解政策可能因国家而异，并在不同时间实施，由于工业生产转移到其他司法管辖区而造成泄漏风险。

• 更雄心勃勃的一揽子减排政策符合国际贸易法，一个国家可以实施这些政策以减少这些部门的排放，同时将泄漏风险降至最低，但对于产品在国内市场与进口产品竞争的生产商和产品出口的生产商而言是不同的。

• 碳定价是每个一揽子计划的重要组成部分，因为它能够最大限度地降低对国内生产商造成不利经济影响的风险，支持创新并产生收入。