We document that the aggregate hiring rate of publicly traded firms in the U.S. economy negatively predicts stock market returns and long-term cash flows, and positively predicts short-term cash flows. In addition, through a variance decomposition, we show that the time-series variation in the aggregate hiring rate is mainly driven by changes in discount rates and short-term expected cash flows, with no contribution from variation in long-term expected cash flows. We estimate a neoclassical dynamic model with labor market frictions and show that labor adjustment costs and time-varying risk are essential for the model to replicate the empirical patterns.

中文翻译：

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是什么推动了公司的招聘决定？资产定价视角

我们记录了美国经济中上市公司的总雇用率对股市回报和长期现金流的负面预测，对短期现金流的正面预测。此外，通过方差分解，我们表明总招聘率的时间序列变化主要是由贴现率和短期预期现金流量的变化驱动的，而长期预期现金流量的变化没有贡献。我们估计了具有劳动力市场摩擦的新古典动态模型，并表明劳动力调整成本和时变风险对于模型复制经验模式至关重要。