Many studies have reported evidence of negative associations between fixed-term contract employment and fertility. With few exceptions, these studies assume that employment status is exogenous and thus results are likely biased. Furthermore, previous research has mostly not considered whether the effects of employment status on fertility might vary with other worker characteristics. We draw on nineteen years of data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey to investigate the causal effect of contingent forms of employment (including both fixed-term and casual employment) on first births, and how that effect varies with selected worker characteristics. The issue of endogeneity is addressed through the use of instrumental variables estimation. Our main finding is that both fixed-term contracts and casual employment lead to a significantly lower probability of first births among men, with the effect of fixed-term contracts being almost as twice as large as the effect of casual employment. We also find that these negative fertility effects vary with workers’ education, occupational status, country of origin, age, and relationship status. In the case of women, one of the instruments fails to satisfy the exclusion restriction, suggesting endogeneity remains a concern when analyzing female fertility outcomes.

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临时就业对生育率的不同影响：来自澳大利亚的证据

许多研究报告了定期合同就业与生育率之间负相关的证据。除了少数例外，这些研究假设就业状况是外生的，因此结果可能有偏差。此外，以往的研究大多没有考虑就业状况对生育率的影响是否会随着工人的其他特征而变化。我们利用澳大利亚家庭、收入和劳动力动态调查中 19 年的数据来调查临时就业形式（包括固定期限和临时就业）对第一胎生育的因果影响，以及这种影响如何随选定的工人而变化特征。内生性问题通过使用工具变量估计来解决。我们的主要发现是，定期合同和临时工都会导致男性生育第一胎的概率显着降低，定期合同的影响几乎是临时工的两倍。我们还发现，这些对生育的负面影响因工人的教育程度、职业地位、原籍国、年龄和关系状况而异。就女性而言，其中一项工具未能满足排除限制，这表明在分析女性生育率结果时，内生性仍然是一个问题。年龄和关系状况。就女性而言，其中一项工具未能满足排除限制，这表明在分析女性生育率结果时，内生性仍然是一个问题。年龄和关系状况。就女性而言，其中一项工具未能满足排除限制，这表明在分析女性生育率结果时，内生性仍然是一个问题。