In this paper, I use the expansion of the US railroad network from 1900 to 1910 and the resulting spatial variation in increased market access to investigate whether economic shocks that occur during childhood have long-run ramifications on later-life outcomes, and the channels through which such effects manifest. I link individuals across the 1900, 1910, and 1940 full-count US Censuses and incorporate an instrumental variable strategy to help isolate the causal effect of market access. I find that, in the short run, sons are less likely to be literate and have more siblings. In the long-run, these sons then become less likely to be well-educated and earn lower incomes. The results of this paper shed light on the mechanisms through which railroad-induced market access and other economic shocks during childhood can impact individuals even in later life.

在这篇论文中，我利用 1900 年至 1910 年美国铁路网络的扩张以及由此导致的市场准入增加的空间变化来调查童年时期发生的经济冲击是否会对以后的生活产生长期影响，以及通过哪些渠道这些效果体现出来了。我将 1900 年、1910 年和 1940 年美国人口普查中的个人联系起来，并采用工具变量策略来帮助隔离市场准入的因果效应。我发现，从短期来看，儿子不太可能识字，而且有更多的兄弟姐妹。从长远来看，这些儿子受良好教育的可能性降低，收入也会降低。