In 2005, Israel began using desalination to augment limited natural water supplies. While desalination has helped Israel overcome chronic water shortages, high-population growth may test this approach. We examine how three population growth scenarios (low, medium, high) could affect water demand and supply by 2065. Our projections show that Israel will need to desalinate as much as 3.7 billion m³ annually, compared to 0.5 billion m³ in 2020. Meeting this demand could require the construction of 30 new desalination units. The effects of population growth on Israel’s water supply are likely to dwarf those of climate change. Increased desalination would, however, increase electricity demand, requiring over 11 TWh electricity annually. Population growth is also likely to challenge Israel’s wastewater management policies, producing more effluent than farmers will have the capacity to consume. The Israeli experience will provide important lessons for regions facing similar pressures.

2005 年，以色列开始使用海水淡化来增加有限的天然水供应。虽然海水淡化帮助以色列克服了长期缺水的问题，但人口的高增长可能会考验这种方法。^{我们研究了到 2065年}三种人口增长情景（低、中、高）如何影响水的需求和供应。我们的预测表明，以色列每年需要淡化多达 37 亿立方米的海水，而之前需要⁵亿立方米到 2020 年。满足这一需求可能需要建造 30 个新的海水淡化装置。人口增长对以色列供水的影响可能使气候变化的影响相形见绌。然而，增加海水淡化会增加电力需求，每年需要超过 11 TWh 的电力。人口增长也可能挑战以色列的废水管理政策，产生的废水超过农民的消费能力。以色列的经验将为面临类似压力的地区提供重要的教训。