OBJECTIVES Taxometric analysis employs multiple, nonoverlapping statistical procedures to estimate parameters that characterize latent categories (e.g., base rates). Consistency among these estimates can inform substantive inferences about latent variables and facilitate idiographic classification. We provide a sketch of a taxometric research program to estimate guilty-suspect base rates in criminal justice and legal systems and use this sketch to explore the possible benefits of taxometric investigations for science and public policy. HYPOTHESES We investigated whether taxometric analysis can accurately estimate base rates and facilitate idiographic classifications under conditions psycholegal researchers might face. METHOD We demonstrate taxometric analysis on simulated data to detect latent categories, estimate their base rates, and classify individual cases. RESULTS Our simulations show that taxometric analysis can accurately estimate taxon base rates. Specifically, estimated base rates differed from simulated base rates by less than 3%. Further, idiographic classification rules derived from taxometric analysis accurately classified individual cases in additional data sets, with positive predictive values and negative predictive values exceeding .85. CONCLUSIONS If legal categories of interest represent nonarbitrary classes, taxometric methods afford an analytic approach by which researchers can use fallible indicator variables to estimate their base rates and develop algorithms for legal classification. We discuss potential objections to the taxometric approach and identify important avenues for future research and development in psycholegal applications of taxometric methods. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译：

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心理法学研究中基本比率估计和具体分类的计税方法。

目标 计税分析采用多个不重叠的统计程序来估计表征潜在类别的参数（例如，基本比率）。这些估计之间的一致性可以为潜在变量的实质性推论提供信息，并有助于具体分类。我们提供了一个税务研究计划的草图，以估计刑事司法和法律系统中的犯罪嫌疑人基本比率，并使用此草图探索税务调查对科学和公共政策的可能好处。假设 我们调查了计税分析是否可以准确估计基本比率并在心理法学研究人员可能面临的情况下促进具体分类。方法 我们演示了对模拟数据的税务分析，以检测潜在类别，估计它们的基本比率，并对个案进行分类。结果 我们的模拟表明分类学分析可以准确地估计分类单元的基本比率。具体而言，估计的基本利率与模拟的基本利率相差不到 3%。此外，从税务计量分析得出的具体分类规则准确地对附加数据集中的个案进行了分类，阳性预测值和阴性预测值超过 0.85。结论 如果合法的利益类别代表非任意类别，则计税方法提供了一种分析方法，研究人员可以通过该方法使用容易出错的指标变量来估计其基本税率并开发合法分类的算法。我们讨论了对计税方法的潜在反对意见，并确定了未来在计税方法的心理法律应用中进行研究和开发的重要途径。（PsycInfo 数据库记录 (c) 2022 APA，保留所有权利）。