OBJECTIVE False confessions are prevalent in wrongful convictions, and much research has examined investigation factors and interrogation methods that can contribute to false confessions. However, not all these factors are under the control of the legal system, and improving the effectiveness of interrogation methods has a limited effect on evaluating the veracity of confessions. We suggest incorporating an important but often-neglected factor in interrogations: suspects' prior probability of guilt ("the prior," a Bayesian term meaning suspects' likelihood of being guilty before police conduct an interrogation). METHOD By connecting interrogation practices to probability concepts, we discuss a gap in the literature between questions traditionally answered by lab research and a distinct question faced by the legal system. RESULTS On the basis of our analysis, we argue that police should increase priors by collecting additional evidence to satisfy an evidence-based suspicion of guilt before interrogating suspects. CONCLUSIONS Implementing the evidence-based suspicion practice can help police reduce false confessions, reallocate investigation time and resources, and assist prosecutors in building strong cases for trial. Likewise, researchers should expand the empirical and legal questions they ask and incorporate priors into their interrogation experiments to improve the generalizability of findings to the criminal justice system. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译：

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基于证据的怀疑和警方审讯中的有罪先验概率。

目的 错案中虚假口供现象普遍存在，大量研究探讨了导致虚假口供的侦查因素和讯问方法。然而，并非所有这些因素都受到法律体系的控制，提高讯问手段的有效性对于评价口供的真实性作用有限。我们建议在审讯中纳入一个重要但经常被忽视的因素：嫌疑人有罪的先验概率（“先验”，贝叶斯术语，意思是嫌疑人在警察进行审讯之前有罪的可能性）。方法 通过将审讯实践与概率概念联系起来，我们讨论了文献中传统上由实验室研究回答的问题与法律体系面临的独特问题之间的差距。结果 根据我们的分析，我们认为警方在审讯嫌疑人之前应该通过收集额外的证据来增加先验，以满足基于证据的有罪嫌疑。结论 实施基于证据的怀疑做法可以帮助警方减少虚假口供，重新分配调查时间和资源，并协助检察官建立强有力的案件进行审判。同样，研究人员应该扩大他们提出的经验和法律问题，并将先验纳入他们的审讯实验中，以提高调查结果对刑事司法系统的普遍性。（PsycInfo 数据库记录 (c) 2023 APA，保留所有权利）。