Governments worldwide have begun supporting eco-friendly vehicles to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, differences exist between their sales and the government targets owing to high purchase costs and lack of charging infrastructure. For the spread of eco-friendly vehicles, it is crucial to understand the demand side as well as research investment. However, scant research analyzes consumer preferences for eco-friendly vehicles, particularly fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), which have recently entered the market. To address this research gap, this study uses a discrete choice model to examine consumer preferences for all vehicles in Korea. The results indicate that consumers have the lowest preferences for FCEVs and the diversity of vehicle types is one of the utmost important attributes. We forecast their future market shares and relative contributions to GHG reduction based on government policies. We expect FCEVs to account for approximately 7% of new vehicles sold in 2030.

世界各国政府已开始支持环保车辆以减少温室气体 (GHG) 排放。然而，由于高昂的采购成本和缺乏充电基础设施，它们的销售额与政府目标之间存在差异。对于环保汽车的普及，了解需求方和研究投资至关重要。然而，很少有研究分析消费者对环保汽车的偏好，尤其是最近进入市场的燃料电池电动汽车 (FCEV)。为了填补这一研究空白，本研究使用离散选择模型来检验韩国消费者对所有车辆的偏好。结果表明，消费者对 FCEV 的偏好最低，车辆类型的多样性是最重要的属性之一。我们根据政府政策预测它们未来的市场份额和对温室气体减排的相对贡献。我们预计 2030 年 FCEV 将占新车销量的 7% 左右。