This study examined the impacts of COVID-19 on changes in route-level transit demand across five transit agencies in the state of Florida. Data for 120 routes from five transit agencies were used to develop two-stage instrumental variable models. Data from January of 2019 to December of 2020 were used in the analysis. Routes that served a greater mix of land-uses experienced a smaller decline in ridership. The impacts of several other land-use variables were, however, not consistent across the five transit agencies. Fare suspension was estimated to have a positive impact on ridership. In contrast, occupancy reduction measures (to promote social distancing within the transit vehicle) had a very strong negative impact on demand. The magnitude of the negative impact of occupancy reduction was larger than the positive impacts of fare suspension. Extending this analysis to a larger set of routes across more agencies would be useful in enhancing the robustness of the findings from our models. Extending our analysis to include data from 2021 and later to capture the recovery phase is also an important direction for future work.

本研究调查了 COVID-19 对佛罗里达州五个交通机构路线级交通需求变化的影响。来自五个运输机构的 120 条路线的数据被用来开发两阶段工具变量模型。分析中使用了 2019 年 1 月至 2020 年 12 月的数据。服务于更多土地利用的路线的客流量下降幅度较小。然而，其他几个土地使用变量的影响在五个运输机构中并不一致。据估计，票价暂停会对乘客量产生积极影响。相比之下，减少占用的措施（以促进运输车辆内的社会距离）对需求产生了非常强烈的负面影响。减少入住率的负面影响幅度大于暂停票价的正面影响。将此分析扩展到更多机构的更多路线，将有助于增强我们模型结果的稳健性。将我们的分析扩展到包括 2021 年及以后的数据以捕捉恢复阶段也是未来工作的重要方向。