Transitioning to more sustainable energy technologies is a vital step in the move toward reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. However, several physical constraints could hinder the implementation of these technologies, and many of the raw materials required to produce new infrastructure are scarce, nonrenewable, and nonsubstitutable. Various factors relating to material extraction and processing activities may also affect the security and sociopolitical aspects of future supply lines. Here, we introduce methods for quantifying three key indicators relating to raw material supplies for specific production processes: (1) overall supply risk, (2) environmental impacts from sourcing raw materials, and (3) environmental justice threats at sourcing locations. The use of the proposed methods is demonstrated via an exploratory case study examining projected electricity production scenarios within the European Union. Results suggest that renewable sources of electricity─particularly wind, solar, and geothermal technologies─are more likely to exacerbate supply risks and environmental issues than other technologies. Furthermore, projected expansions of wind and solar technologies mean that all three indicators appear likely to rise significantly systemwide by 2050. Ultimately, the methods represent a much-needed first attempt at providing practitioners with simple and robust approaches for integrating factors relating specifically to raw material supply into energy modeling and other applications.

中文翻译：

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评估能源和其他技术中关键原材料方面的新技术

向更可持续的能源技术过渡是减少全球温室气体排放的重要一步。然而，一些物理限制可能会阻碍这些技术的实施，而且生产新基础设施所需的许多原材料都是稀缺的、不可再生的和不可替代的。与材料提取和加工活动相关的各种因素也可能影响未来供应线的安全和社会政治方面。在这里，我们介绍了量化与特定生产过程的原材料供应相关的三个关键指标的方法：(1) 整体供应风险，(2) 原材料采购对环境的影响，以及 (3) 采购地点的环境正义威胁。拟议方法的使用通过一个探索性案例研究来证明，该案例研究检查了欧盟内预计的电力生产情景。结果表明，可再生能源——尤其是风能、太阳能和地热技术——比其他技术更有可能加剧供应风险和环境问题。此外，风能和太阳能技术的预计扩张意味着到 2050 年，所有这三个指标似乎都可能在全系统范围内显着上升。最终，这些方法代表了急需的首次尝试，旨在为从业者提供简单而可靠的方法来整合与原材料相关的因素供应能源建模和其他应用程序。结果表明，可再生能源——尤其是风能、太阳能和地热技术——比其他技术更有可能加剧供应风险和环境问题。此外，风能和太阳能技术的预计扩张意味着到 2050 年，所有这三个指标似乎都可能在全系统范围内显着上升。最终，这些方法代表了急需的首次尝试，旨在为从业者提供简单而可靠的方法来整合与原材料相关的因素供应能源建模和其他应用程序。结果表明，可再生能源——尤其是风能、太阳能和地热技术——比其他技术更有可能加剧供应风险和环境问题。此外，风能和太阳能技术的预计扩张意味着到 2050 年，所有这三个指标似乎都可能在全系统范围内显着上升。最终，这些方法代表了急需的首次尝试，旨在为从业者提供简单而可靠的方法来整合与原材料相关的因素供应能源建模和其他应用程序。