Background

Meningitis can cause devastating epidemics and is susceptible to climate change. It is unclear how temperature variability, an indicator of climate change, is associated with meningitis incidence.

Methods

We used global meningitis incidence data along with meteorological and demographic data over 1990–2019 to identify the association between temperature variability and meningitis. We also employed future (2020–2100) climate data to predict meningitis incidence under different emission levels (SSPs: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways).

Results

We found that the mean temperature variability increased by almost 3 folds in the past 30 years. The largest changes occurred in Australasia, Tropical Latin America, and Central Sub-Saharan Africa. With a logarithmic unit increase in temperature variability, the overall global meningitis risk increases by 4.8 %. Australasia, Central Sub-Saharan Africa, and High-income North America are the most at-risk regions. Higher statistical differences were identified in males, children, and the elderly population. Compared to high-emission (SSP585) scenario, we predicted a median reduction of 85.8 % in meningitis incidence globally under the low-emission (SSP126) climate change scenario by 2100.

Conclusion

Our study provides evidence for temperature variability being in association with meningitis incidence, which suggests that global actions are urgently needed to address climate change and to prevent meningitis occurrence.

中文翻译：

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温度变化与全球脑膜炎发病率之间的关联

背景

脑膜炎可引起毁灭性的流行病，并且容易受到气候变化的影响。目前尚不清楚作为气候变化指标的温度变异性如何与脑膜炎发病率相关联。

方法

我们使用全球脑膜炎发病率数据以及 1990-2019 年的气象和人口统计数据来确定温度变化与脑膜炎之间的关联。我们还利用未来（2020-2100 年）的气候数据来预测不同排放水平下的脑膜炎发病率（SSP：共享社会经济途径）。

结果

我们发现，在过去 30 年中，平均温度变化增加了近 3 倍。最大的变化发生在澳大拉西亚、热带拉丁美洲和撒哈拉以南非洲中部。随着温度变化的对数单位增加，全球脑膜炎的总体风险增加 4.8%。澳大拉西亚、中撒哈拉以南非洲和高收入北美地区是风险最高的地区。在男性、儿童和老年人口中发现了更高的统计差异。与高排放 (SSP585) 情景相比，我们预测到 2100 年，在低排放 (SSP126) 气候变化情景下，全球脑膜炎发病率中位数将减少 85.8%。

结论

我们的研究提供了温度变化与脑膜炎发病率相关的证据，这表明迫切需要全球行动来应对气候变化和预防脑膜炎的发生。