Indirect effects of conflict on mortality of vulnerable groups are as important, or more important, than the direct effects. However, data limitations and methodological challenges hinder the estimation of excess deaths produced by conflict, and few studies explore the mechanisms by which conflict harms civilian populations. We estimate the impact of the Malian conflict on child mortality over the period 2012–2018 using Demographic Health Survey data. We use birth histories to build time series of child mortality, and we employ novel synthetic control methods to show that the Malian conflict significantly increased child mortality in northern Mali. We conduct a difference-in-difference analysis of the impact of conflict on key determinants of maternal and child health and conclude that a reduction in access to safe sanitation and to child vaccinations in conflict areas was among the most likely causes of the increase in mortality. Northern Mali is today one of the poorest and most neglected areas of the world where humanitarian assistance is urgently needed.

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马里的冲突和儿童死亡率：综合控制分析

冲突对弱势群体死亡率的间接影响与直接影响同等重要，甚至更重要。然而，数据限制和方法上的挑战阻碍了对冲突造成的额外死亡人数的估计，而且很少有研究探讨冲突伤害平民人口的机制。我们使用人口健康调查数据估算了马里冲突对 2012-2018 年期间儿童死亡率的影响。我们使用出生历史来构建儿童死亡率的时间序列，并采用新颖的综合控制方法来表明马里冲突显着增加了马里北部的儿童死亡率。我们对冲突对孕产妇和儿童健康的关键决定因素的影响进行了差异分析，并得出结论认为，冲突地区安全卫生设施和儿童疫苗接种机会的减少是死亡率上升的最可能原因之一. 今天，马里北部是世界上最贫穷和最被忽视的地区之一，迫切需要人道主义援助。