Return-to-play decision making should be based on all the advantages and disadvantages of return to play for athletes, not just the risk of injury. For competitive athletes, this includes the effect of early versus delayed return to sport on performance. In this paper, we address the questions “How can I estimate the effect of injury on the individual’s performance at return to play?” and “What is the effect of delaying return to sport on the individual’s performance?”. To address these questions, we describe (1) some foundational concepts, design and analytical challenges related to estimating the causal effect of return to play timing on performance in the athlete, (2) additional challenges if one is interested in the effects of delaying return to play and (3) differences when the questions relate to the team’s performance. Although the analytical strategies described appear complicated, coaches and athletes make these judgements informally every day without explicitly stating their assumptions. Using a formal approach should help analysts provide the most valid answers to the questions asked by athletes and coaches. In brief, the choice of a comparison group depends on the research question and requires that one consider the hypothetical performance trajectory of the athlete had they never been injured. Thus, the optimal comparison group depends on the shape of the expected trajectory and the specific research question being asked.

重返赛场的决策应基于运动员重返赛场的所有利弊，而不仅仅是受伤的风险。对于竞技运动员，这包括早期和延迟重返运动对表现的影响。在本文中，我们解决了以下问题：“我如何估计伤病对个人重返赛场表现的影响？” 以及“延迟重返运动对个人表现有何影响？”。为了解决这些问题，我们描述了 (1) 一些与估计重返赛场时间对运动员表现的因果效应相关的基本概念、设计和分析挑战，(2) 如果有人对延迟回归的影响感兴趣，则会面临其他挑战发挥和 (3) 当问题与团队的表现有关时的差异。尽管所描述的分析策略看起来很复杂，但教练和运动员每天都会非正式地做出这些判断，而不会明确说明他们的假设。使用正式的方法应该有助于分析师对运动员和教练提出的问题提供最有效的答案。简而言之，比较组的选择取决于研究问题，并且需要考虑运动员从未受伤的假设表现轨迹。因此，最佳比较组取决于预期轨迹的形状和所提出的具体研究问题。使用正式的方法应该有助于分析师对运动员和教练提出的问题提供最有效的答案。简而言之，比较组的选择取决于研究问题，并且需要考虑运动员从未受伤的假设表现轨迹。因此，最佳比较组取决于预期轨迹的形状和所提出的具体研究问题。使用正式的方法应该有助于分析师对运动员和教练提出的问题提供最有效的答案。简而言之，比较组的选择取决于研究问题，并且需要考虑运动员从未受伤的假设表现轨迹。因此，最佳比较组取决于预期轨迹的形状和所提出的具体研究问题。