Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO₂ emissions (E_FOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (E_LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO₂ concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (G_ATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO₂ sink (S_OCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO₂ sink (S_LAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B_IM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ.For the year 2021, E_FOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹ (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹ when the cement carbonation sink is included), and E_LUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr⁻¹, for a total anthropogenic CO₂ emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr⁻¹ (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO₂). Also, for 2021, G_ATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr⁻¹ (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr⁻¹), S_OCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr⁻¹, and S_LAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr⁻¹, with a B_IM of −0.6 GtC yr⁻¹ (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO₂ concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in E_FOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO₂ concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr⁻¹ persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO₂ fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO₂ flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

中文翻译：

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2022 年全球碳预算

准确评估气候变化中人为二氧化碳 (CO ₂ ) 排放及其在大气、海洋和陆地生物圈之间的再分配对于更好地了解全球碳循环、支持制定气候政策和预测未来气候变化至关重要。在这里，我们描述和综合了数据集和方法，以量化全球碳预算的五个主要组成部分及其不确定性。化石 CO ₂排放量 ( E _FOS ) 基于能源统计数据和水泥生产数据，而土地利用变化排放 ( _ELUC )，主要是森林砍伐，基于土地利用和土地利用变化数据和簿记模型。大气 CO ₂直接测量浓度，并根据浓度的年度变化计算其增长率 ( G _{ATM )。}海洋 CO ₂汇 ( S _OCEAN ) 使用全球海洋生物地球化学模型和基于观测的数据产品进行估算。陆地 CO ₂汇 ( S _LAND ) 使用动态全球植被模型进行估计。由此产生的碳收支失衡 ( B _IM )，即估算的总排放量与估算的大气、海洋和陆地生物圈变化之间的差异，是对不完善数据和对当代碳循环的理解的衡量。所有不确定性报告为±1 σ。2021 年，E _FOS相对于 2020 年增加了 5.1 %，化石排放量为 10.1  ±  0.5 GtC yr ^-1（包括水泥碳化汇为 9.9  ±  0.5 GtC yr ^-1），而E _LUC为1.1  ±  0.7 GtC yr ^-1，人为 CO ₂总排放量（包括水泥碳化汇）为 10.9  ±  0.8 GtC yr ^-1 (40.0  ±  2.9 GtCO ₂ )。此外，2021 年，G _ATM为 5.2  ±  0.2 GtC yr ^-1（2.5  ±  0.1 ppm yr ^-1），S _OCEAN为 2.9 ±  0.4 GtC yr ^-1，S _LAND为 3.5  ±  0.9 GtC yr ^-1， B _IM为- 0.6 GtC yr ^-1（即总估计源太低或水槽太高）。2021 年全球大气 CO ₂平均浓度达到 414.71  ±  0.1 ppm。2022 年的初步数据表明，相对于 2021 年，全球和大气 CO2 的E _FOS增加+ 1.0 %（0.1 % 至 1.9 %）₂浓度达到 417.2 ppm，比工业化前水平（约 278 ppm）高出 50% 以上。_{总体而言，全球碳预算组成部分的平均值和趋势在 1959 年至 2021 年期间始终得到估计，但在表示 CO 2}通量的年度至半年代际变化时，仍然存在高达 1 GtC yr ^{-1的差异。}对多种方法和观测的估计值的比较表明：(1) 土地利用变化排放的估计值持续存在很大的不确定性，(2) 不同方法之间对土地 CO _{2量级的一致性较低}北温带的通量，以及（3）在过去十年中，不同方法对海洋下沉强度的差异。本次实时数据更新记录了新的全球碳预算中使用的方法和数据集的变化，以及与该数据集之前的出版物相比，在理解全球碳循环方面取得的进展。这项工作中提供的数据可在 https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 获得（Friedlingstein 等人，2022b）。