We show that over the past half-century, innovative disruptions were central to understanding corporate defaults. In a given year, industries experiencing abnormally high venture capital or initial public offering activity subsequently see higher default rates, higher segment exits by conglomerates, and higher yields on bonds issued by the firms in these industries. Overall, we find that disruption is a broad phenomenon, negatively affecting incumbent firms across the spectrum of age, valuation, and levers, with the exception of very large and low-leverage firms, in line with our central hypothesis.

中文翻译：

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中断和信贷市场

我们表明，在过去的半个世纪里，创新的颠覆是理解企业违约的核心。在特定年份，经历过异常高的风险投资或首次公开募股活动的行业随后会出现更高的违约率、更高的集团退出部门以及这些行业公司发行的债券的更高收益率。总体而言，我们发现颠覆是一种广泛的现象，对年龄、估值和杠杆方面的现有公司产生负面影响，但超大型和低杠杆公司除外，这与我们的中心假设一致。