This paper identifies for the first time the optimal target markets employing the latent tourism demand expenditure, a novel concept in tourism literature. The study quantifies latent tourism demand between each pair of origin-destination through distinguishing by type of tourism and seasonality. It works with market shares that are estimated via a fractional regression model. Moreover, latent demand is clustered using a market segmentation approach based on a latent class regression. Finally, the optimal target markets are chosen depending on the expected latent tourism expenditure. The result has clear policy implications in terms of which markets are promoted, the optimal channels of communication and the maximum budget for each marketing campaign.

本文首次确定了使用潜在旅游需求支出的最佳目标市场，这是旅游文献中的一个新概念。该研究通过区分旅游类型和季节性来量化每对起点-目的地之间的潜在旅游需求。它适用于通过分数回归模型估计的市场份额。此外，使用基于潜在类别回归的市场细分方法对潜在需求进行聚类。最后，根据预期的潜在旅游支出选择最佳目标市场。结果在促进哪些市场、最佳沟通渠道和每次营销活动的最大预算方面具有明确的政策含义。