Abstract

We introduce a new methodology to investigate the degree of persistence in firm growth dynamics, based on Conditional Quantile Transition Probability Matrices (CQTPMs) and exact inferential tests derived from two well-known mobility indexes. We apply the methodology to study manufacturing firms in the UK and four major European economies over the period 2010–2017. We find that CQTPMs display more persistence than under a fully independent firm growth process, albeit considerable turbulence and significant bouncing effects are detected. Exploiting the inferential statistics within a regression framework, we show that productivity, openness to trade, and business dynamism are the primary sources of firm growth persistence across sectors, while country-specific and time-specific factors play a second-order role.

中文翻译：

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企业增长的持久性：条件分位数转换矩阵的推断

摘要

我们基于条件分位数转移概率矩阵 (CQTPM) 和从两个著名的流动性指数得出的精确推理测试，引入了一种新方法来研究公司增长动态的持续性程度。我们应用该方法来研究 2010-2017 年期间英国和四个主要欧洲经济体的制造企业。我们发现 CQTPM 比完全独立的公司增长过程显示出更多的持久性，尽管检测到相当大的动荡和显着的反弹效应。利用回归框架内的推论统计数据，我们表明生产力、贸易开放度和商业活力是跨部门企业持续增长的主要来源，而特定国家和特定时间的因素则发挥着次要作用。