We construct a monthly presidential economic approval rating (PEAR) index from 1981 to 2019, by averaging ratings on the president’s handling of the economy across various national polls. In the cross-section, stocks with high betas to changes in the PEAR index significantly under-perform those with low betas by 1.00% per month in the future, on a risk-adjusted basis. The low PEAR beta premium persists up to one year, and is present in various sub-samples and even in other G7 countries. PEAR beta dynamically reveals a firm’s perceived alignment to the incumbent president’s economic policies and investors seem to misprice such an alignment.

我们通过对总统在各种全国民意调查中处理经济的评级进行平均，构建了从 1981 年到 2019 年的月度总统经济支持率 (PEAR) 指数。在横截面中，在风险调整的基础上，未来每个月对 PEAR 指数变化具有高贝塔系数的股票的表现明显低于贝塔系数低的股票 1.00%。低 PEAR β 溢价持续长达一年，并且存在于各种子样本中，甚至存在于其他 G7 国家中。PEAR beta 动态地揭示了公司对现任总统经济政策的感知一致性，而投资者似乎错误地估计了这种一致性。