We describe how capital accumulation and the network structure of US production interact to amplify the effects of sectoral trend growth rates in total factor productivity and labor on trend GDP (gross domestic product) growth. We derive expressions that conveniently summarize this long-run amplification effect by way of sectoral multipliers. We estimate that sector-specific factors have historically accounted for approximately three-fourths of long-run changes in GDP growth. Trend GDP growth fell by nearly 3 percentage points over the postwar period, with especially significant contributions from the Construction sector in 1950–80 and the Durable Goods sector in 2000–2018. No sector has contributed any steady significant increase to the trend growth rate of GDP in the past 70 years.

中文翻译：

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不断变化的行业趋势的总体影响

我们描述了资本积累和美国生产的网络结构如何相互作用，以放大全要素生产率和劳动力的部门趋势增长率对趋势 GDP（国内生产总值）增长的影响。我们推导出通过部门乘数方便地总结这种长期放大效应的表达式。我们估计，从历史上看，特定行业因素占 GDP 增长长期变化的大约四分之三。战后 GDP 增长趋势下降了近 3 个百分点，其中建筑业在 1950-80 年和耐用品行业在 2000-2018 年的贡献尤为显着。在过去的 70 年里，没有一个部门对 GDP 的趋势增长率做出任何稳定的显着增长。