Purpose

In this paper, the authors study the failure of Russian banks between 2012 and 2019.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors analyze the entire population of Russian banks and combine a logit model with the survival analysis.

Findings

In addition to the usual determinants, the authors find that not-failed banks have higher levels of fulfillment of the Central Bank requirements of solvency, liquidity, provide fewer loans to their shareholders and own more shares of other banks. The results of this study suggest an asymmetric effect of the strategic orientation of banks: whereas the proportion of deposits from firms is negatively related to the probability of failure, the loans to firms are positively related to bankruptcies. According to this research, the fact of being controlled by a foreign bank has a significant negative relationship with the likelihood of failure and moderates the effect of bank size, performance and growth on the bankruptcy likelihood.

Practical implications

On the whole, the results of this study support the new Central Bank rules, but show that the thresholds imposed by the Russian regulator actually do not make a difference between failed and not failed banks in the short and medium term.

Originality/value

The authors specially focus on the effectiveness of new rules issued by the Central Bank of Russia in 2013.

中文翻译：

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俄罗斯银行的生存：控制措施的效率如何？

目的

在本文中，作者研究了 2012 年至 2019 年间俄罗斯银行的倒闭情况。

设计/方法论/途径

作者分析了俄罗斯银行的整体情况，并将 Logit 模型与生存分析相结合。

发现

除了通常的决定因素之外，作者还发现，未倒闭的银行在偿付能力和流动性方面满足央行要求的水平较高，向股东提供的贷款较少，并拥有更多其他银行的股份。本研究的结果表明，银行战略定位存在不对称效应：企业存款比例与破产概率负相关，而企业贷款与破产概率正相关。根据这项研究，被外资银行控制的事实与破产可能性存在显着的负相关关系，并减弱了银行规模、业绩和增长对破产可能性的影响。

实际影响

总体而言，这项研究的结果支持新的央行规则，但表明俄罗斯监管机构施加的门槛实际上并没有在中短期内对倒闭银行和未倒闭银行产生影响。

原创性/价值

作者特别关注俄罗斯央行2013年发布的新规则的有效性。