Failure in time (FIT) is an important measure for the reliability of electrical connectors. Due to the very long lifetime of connectors, the tests for the determination of FIT rate are time and labour intensive. In this paper a data driven method using a statistical process to estimate the FIT rate of electrical connectors with data of electrical contact resistance development in short term tests is proposed. The results of prediction are then compared with the results from long term tests. The study shows a strong correlation between contact resistance development in short term tests and the development of the number of failures in later stages of tests. In order to predict the development of degradation precisely, the distribution of resistance data in many different tests with different connectors is investigated. The Generalized Extreme Value Distribution, which reveals an ideal fitting, has been implemented for the prediction of the failure rates of connectors, thereby enabling a remarkable time-lapse of lifetime tests. This method can also be employed in the prognosis and management of system health through the forecast of health of connectors in different systems in operation.

及时失效（FIT）是衡量电连接器可靠性的重要指标。由于连接器的使用寿命非常长，因此确定 FIT 率的测试既费时又费力。本文提出了一种数据驱动方法，该方法使用统计过程来估计电连接器的 FIT 率，并利用短期测试中的电接触电阻发展数据。然后将预测结果与长期测试的结果进行比较。该研究表明，短期测试中的接触电阻发展与测试后期故障数量的发展之间存在很强的相关性。为了准确预测退化的发展，研究了使用不同连接器的许多不同测试中的电阻数据分布。广义极值分布揭示了理想的拟合，已被用于预测连接器的故障率，从而实现了显着的寿命测试延时。该方法还可以通过对运行中不同系统中连接器的健康状况进行预测，用于系统健康状况的预测和管理。