Climate Policy ( IF 6.056 ) Pub Date : 2022-09-26 , DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2022.2126813 Bundit Limmeechokchai 1 , Salony Rajbhandari 1 , Bijay B. Pradhan 1 , Puttipong Chunark 2 , Achiraya Chaichaloempreecha 1 , Shinichiro Fujimori 3, 4, 5 , Ken Oshiro 3 , Yuki Ochi 6
ABSTRACT
Thailand’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aims to reduce 20 to 25% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with respect to the projected reference level of NDC in 2030, respectively, in its unconditional and conditional scenarios. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C would require net zero carbon dioxide emissions globally by around 2050. Thailand’s current energy system is highly fossil fuel dependent and requires enormous transformations to achieve more stringent GHG emission reduction targets beyond its NDC. This paper seeks to estimate the level and the intensities of Thailand’s energy system and their economy-wide effects post-2030 under the business as usual and 16 GHG emission reduction scenarios ranging from 30 to 100% by 2050. A computable general equilibrium analysis using the AIM/Hub model is employed to estimate the macroeconomic impacts of meeting the unconditional and conditional emission reductions of Thailand’s NDC in 2030 along with varying GHG emission reductions in 2050. Results show that renewables – constituting solar, wind, biomass and hydro and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies account for more than 95% in the power generation mix by 2050, if 100% GHG emission reduction from the 2010 level is to be achieved. Electricity generation based on biomass both with and without CCS will occupy a major share in the investments by 2050 in all the conditional and unconditional NDC scenarios. A rapid increase in carbon sequestration occurs from 2040 onwards through the deployment of CCS and bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) technologies in all the conditional and unconditional NDC scenarios. Carbon prices lie in the range of 3.4–266.2 US$/tCO2eq during 2025–2050 to achieve 100% GHG emission reductions in 2050. Imposition of early stringent mitigation target lowers the carbon prices in the conditional scenarios towards 2050 when compared to the unconditional scenarios. The rapid uptake of CCS, energy efficiency improvements and electrification of the end-use technologies are identified to be the key measures to transform the energy system of Thailand.
Key policy insights
By 2050, the Thai economy would face a higher fall in both the GDP and household consumption in the unconditional scenarios than those in the conditional scenarios at all levels of GHG emission reduction.
Results indicate that early mitigation efforts can be less costly than the delayed ones in the long-term.
The cumulative investment needed to achieve decarbonization in Thailand is estimated to exceed 355 billion US$2005 over the period 2010–2050 in the 100% GHG reduction scenarios.
The transmission and distribution investments in the power sector need to increase by 30–35% to attain 100% GHG emission reductions during 2010–2050.
The trade deficit improves by up to 23–29% in the various GHG mitigation scenarios in 2050.
中文翻译：
扩大 2030 年后的气候目标：泰国的长期温室气体减排分析
摘要
泰国向联合国气候变化框架公约（UNFCCC）提交的国家自主贡献（NDC）目标是在2030年相对于NDC的预计参考水平分别减少20％至25％的温室气体（GHG）排放，在其无条件和有条件的场景。政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 指出，将全球气温上升限制在 1.5°C 将要求到 2050 年左右全球二氧化碳净排放量为零。泰国目前的能源系统高度依赖化石燃料，需要进行巨大的转型才能实现更严格的温室气体排放超出其国家自主贡献的减排目标。到 2050 年，在所有有条件和无条件的 NDC 情景中，无论有无 CCS，基于生物质的发电都将占据投资的主要份额。从 2040 年开始，通过在所有有条件和无条件的 NDC 情景中部署 CCS 和生物能源与 CCS (BECCS) 技术，碳封存量将迅速增加。碳价在 3.4–266.2 美元/吨二氧化碳之间2025-2050 年期间达到 2 eq，以在 2050 年实现 100% 的温室气体减排。与无条件情景相比，早期实施严格的减缓目标降低了 2050 年有条件情景中的碳价。CCS 的快速采用、能源效率的提高和终端使用技术的电气化被确定为泰国能源系统转型的关键措施。
关键政策见解
到 2050 年，在所有温室气体减排水平上，泰国经济在无条件情景下的 GDP 和家庭消费都将面临比有条件情景下更大的跌幅。
结果表明，从长远来看，早期缓解措施的成本可能低于延迟缓解措施的成本。
在2005年 100% 的温室气体减排情景中，泰国实现脱碳所需的累计投资估计超过 3550 亿美元。
电力部门的输配电投资需要增加 30-35%，才能在 2010-2050 年实现 100% 的温室气体减排。
在 2050 年的各种温室气体减排情景中，贸易逆差最多可减少 23-29%。
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