Politics is a crucial aspect of society. It has a very high impact on the development of a community and its population. Thinking and acts of a few political persons/parties affect the whole population. In our work, a dynamical mathematical model is being considered to investigate the ideological pressure and change in a region where a group is being violent to achieve the desired political results. The estimation of model parameters is made, and the results of general elections of a specific region (Basque country) are used to paint the future political scenario of the region by the derived model. Analytical investigation for the system of nonlinear differential equations governing the social phenomenon is also done. The worth of the considered model is shown by stability analysis.

政治是社会的重要方面。它对社区及其人口的发展具有非常大的影响。少数政治人物/政党的思想和行为会影响全体人民。在我们的工作中，正在考虑使用动态数学模型来调查某个地区的意识形态压力和变化，在该地区，一群人正在使用暴力以达到预期的政治结果。对模型参数进行估计，并利用特定地区（巴斯克地区）的大选结果，通过推导模型描绘该地区未来的政治情景。还对控制社会现象的非线性微分方程组进行了分析研究。所考虑模型的价值通过稳定性分析显示。