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Uncovering the link between intra-individual heterogeneity and variety seeking: the case of new shared mobility
Transportation ( IF 4.3 ) Pub Date : 2022-09-21 , DOI: 10.1007/s11116-022-10334-4
Fangqing Song , Stephane Hess , Thijs Dekker

Preferences can vary both across respondents (i.e. inter-respondent preference heterogeneity) and across choice tasks within respondents (i.e. intra-respondent preference heterogeneity). Ignoring the existence of intra-respondent preference heterogeneity could bias preference elicitation and demand forecast. Thus far, most studies covering inter- and intra-respondent preference heterogeneity have applied the mixed multinomial logit model. Meanwhile, the behavioural explanations for such preference variations remain under-explored. This paper accommodates inter- and intra-respondent preference heterogeneity through a two-layer latent class modelling structure, where the continuous random distributions are replaced with discrete mixtures in both layers. A latent variable representing variety-seeking is included to explain class membership probabilities, offering additional behavioural insights concerning the source of preference heterogeneity both across and within respondents. Two aspects associated with variety-seeking are examined: novelty-seeking (i.e. the inclination to adopt new modes) and alternation (i.e. the tendency to vary one’s behaviour regularly by selecting different modes continuously). In the context of new shared mobility, this paper finds the role of both aspects in preference heterogeneity. Specifically, novelty seekers are found to be more likely to fall into the class with higher probabilities of switching from existing modes to the new air taxi service than novelty avoiders, and alternation seekers are more likely to belong to the class with higher probabilities to exhibit intra-respondent preference heterogeneity than alternation avoiders. This paper, therefore, provides empirical evidence to identify the target customers of the new air taxi service.



中文翻译:

揭示个体内部异质性与多样性寻求之间的联系:新的共享流动性案例

偏好在受访者之间(即受访者间偏好异质性)和受访者内的选择任务(即受访者内部偏好异质性)之间可能会有所不同。忽略受访者内部偏好异质性的存在可能会使偏好引发和需求预测产生偏差。迄今为止,大多数涵盖受访者间和受访者内部偏好异质性的研究都应用了混合多项式 logit 模型。同时,对这种偏好变化的行为解释仍未得到充分探索。本文通过两层潜在类建模结构来适应受访者间和受访者内的偏好异质性,其中连续随机分布被两层中的离散混合所取代。包含一个代表寻求多样性的潜在变量来解释类别成员概率,提供有关受访者之间和内部的偏好异质性来源的额外行为见解。考察了与寻求多样性相关的两个方面:寻求新奇(即采用新模式的倾向)和交替(即通过不断选择不同模式定期改变行为的趋势)。在新共享出行的背景下,本文发现了这两个方面在偏好异质性中的作用。具体来说,与避免新奇事物的人相比,寻求新奇事物的人更有可能属于从现有模式切换到新空中出租车服务的概率更高的类别,并且交替寻求者比交替避免者更有可能属于具有更高概率表现出受访者内偏好异质性的类别。因此,本文为确定新空中出租车服务的目标客户提供了经验证据。

更新日期:2022-09-21
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