ABSTRACT

Recent studies find that fiscal concerns strongly condition public attitudes toward immigration. To what extent do expert cues affect these worries? Original survey experiments in Japan reveal that citizens are more easily swayed by experts warning against negative fiscal effects of immigration than they are by suggestions of possible positive economic or cultural impacts. This strong responsiveness to negative information is shared across the population, including the more educated who may be pro-immigrant, richer respondents who are less likely to depend on the government for their livelihoods, and younger respondents who may worry less about possible cuts in benefits. A follow-up survey four years after the initial survey confirms the reliability of our findings and also suggests some macro-level variables that condition how expert cues work.

摘要

最近的研究发现，财政问题强烈地制约着公众对移民的态度。专家提示在多大程度上影响了这些担忧？日本的原始调查实验表明，与可能对经济或文化产生积极影响的建议相比，公民更容易被专家警告移民的负面财政影响所左右。这种对负面信息的强烈反应在整个人群中都有所体现，包括受教育程度较高的可能支持移民的受访者、不太可能依赖政府谋生的较富裕的受访者，以及可能较少担心可能削减福利的年轻受访者. 首次调查四年后的后续调查证实了我们研究结果的可靠性，并提出了一些宏观层面的变量，这些变量决定了专家线索的工作方式。