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Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations of the spatial structure of rainfall variability over East Africa: Evaluation and projection
International Journal of Climatology ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2022-09-13 , DOI: 10.1002/joc.7868
Dickson Mbigi 1, 2, 3 , Augustine Omondi Onyango 2 , Zacharia Florence Mtewele 2, 3 , Paul Kiprotich 4 , Ziniu Xiao 1
Affiliation  

Modifications in rainfall patterns may have significant effects on a variety of natural and human systems. This study evaluates the ability of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to simulate the interannual variability of rainfall over East Africa (EA) using a method based on the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The future changes in rainfall variability during the near (2021–2040), middle (2041–2060) and late (2080–2099) future are analysed under two different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP), SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Results reveal that most models captured better spatial climatological rainfall pattern than simulated amplitude in the EA region receiving bimodal rainfall pattern (EABM) compared to that with unimodal rainfall regime (EAUM) in the historical period. An ensemble mean of all models (AMME) and a set of 13 models that best simulated the rainfall variability in the base period were selected using a robust method based on the EOF analysis for further analysis. Most of the selected models and their ensemble mean (BMME) displayed good capability in representing the annual standard deviation (SD) in recent decades, whereas BMME corroborates AMME, particularly over the EABM and EAUM regions. Based on these findings, the AMME and BMME were used to evaluate the future changes in rainfall variability. The models project a significant increase in rainfall variability during March by the mid and late 21st century over the EAUM region under SSP5-8.5, whereas the increase appears much earlier in the near-future over the EABM region. In all future periods and SSPs, SD demonstrates a considerable increase over most of the EABM region, and the magnitude gradually increases from the AMME to BMME projections. Moreover, a relatively stronger increase is anticipated to actualize by the mid of 21st century.

中文翻译:

耦合模式比对项目第 6 阶段东非降雨变率空间结构模拟:评估和预测

降雨模式的改变可能对各种自然和人类系统产生重大影响。本研究使用基于经验正交函数 (EOF) 分析的方法评估 20 耦合模式比较项目第 6 阶段 (CMIP6) 模拟东非 (EA) 降雨年际变化的能力。在两种不同的共享社会经济路径 (SSP) SSP2-4.5 和 SSP5-8.5 下,分析了近期(2021-2040 年)、中期(2041-2060 年)和后期(2080-2099 年)降雨变化的未来变化。结果表明,与历史时期单峰降雨模式 (EAUM) 相比,大多数模型在接受双峰降雨模式 (EABM) 的 EA 地区捕获了比模拟振幅更好的空间气候降雨模式。使用基于 EOF 分析的稳健方法,选择了所有模型的集合平均值 (AMME) 和一组 13 个模型,这些模型最能模拟基期的降雨变化,用于进一步分析。大多数所选模型及其集合均值(BMME)在表示年度标准偏差方面表现出良好的能力(SD ) 在最近几十年,而 BMME 证实了 AMME,特别是在 EABM 和 EAUM 地区。基于这些发现,AMME 和 BMME 被用来评估降雨变异性的未来变化。这些模型预测,到 21 世纪中后期,EAUM 地区在 SSP5-8.5 下的 3 月降雨量变率将显着增加,而 EABM 地区的增加出现在不久的将来。在所有未来时期和 SSP 中,SD在 EABM 的大部分地区都表现出相当大的增长,并且幅度从 AMME 到 BMME 预测逐渐增加。此外,预计到 21 世纪中叶将实现相对强劲的增长。
更新日期:2022-09-13
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