In the context of global warming and the release of projection results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), it is important to conduct research on climate change on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) which exhibits unique geographic characteristics and complex climatic conditions. Using 10 general circulation models (GCMs) from CMIP6 corrected for bias by the daily translation (DT) method, we investigated the projected changes in precipitation and air temperature for the mid-term (2031–2050) and long-term (2061–2080) of the 21st century on the TP after evaluating the reliability of the bias correction, for four scenarios based on different combinations of shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways. The multimodel ensembles (MMEs) indicated that the projected annual precipitation shows an increasing trend for the mid-term and long-term periods, with the projected increase for the long-term primarily concentrated in areas with less precipitation. Meanwhile, the future precipitation changes exhibit a significant elevation dependency. The rate of increase of precipitation firstly fluctuates and then gradually increases along with the elevation increasing from 1,500 to 5,800 m. The valley value of rate mainly appears in two elevation zones (2,200–2,600 m and 3,400–3,800 m). The projected temporal changes in annual air temperatures reveal obvious warming over the TP. The projected warming is overall more pronounced with increase in elevation; however, it reaches a peak at approximately 5,000–5,200 m and then slows down slightly, indicating that warming is not dependent on elevation in the higher elevation zones. The present results have important implications for investigating the impacts of climate change on the water cycle in alpine regions.

中文翻译：

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基于耦合模式比对项目六期多模式集合的青藏高原未来降水和气温预估

在全球变暖和第六期耦合模式比对计划（CMIP6）预估结果发布的背景下，青藏高原具有独特的地理特征和复杂的气候条件，开展气候变化研究具有重要意义。使用 CMIP6 中的 10 个大气环流模型 (GCM)，通过每日平移 (DT) 方法校正偏差，我们调查了中期 (2031-2050) 和长期 (2061-2080) 降水量和气温的预计变化) 在评估偏差校正的可靠性后，在 TP 上的 21 世纪，基于共享社会经济路径和代表性集中路径的不同组合的四种情景。多模式集合（MMEs）表明，预估的年降水量在中长期呈现增加趋势，其中长期预估增加主要集中在降水量较少的地区。同时，未来降水变化表现出显着的海拔依赖性。随着海拔从1500米上升到5800米，降水增加率呈先波动后逐渐增加的趋势。速率谷值主要出现在2200~2600米和3400~3800米两个高程带。预测的年气温时间变化表明青藏高原明显变暖。随着海拔的升高，预计的变暖总体上更加明显；然而，它在大约 5,000–5,200 米处达到峰值，然后略微减慢，表明变暖与高海拔地区的海拔无关。目前的结果对于调查气候变化对高寒地区水循环的影响具有重要意义。