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Can Rebels Bolster Trust in the Government? Evidence from the Philippines
Journal of Conflict Resolution ( IF 3.211 ) Pub Date : 2022-08-28 , DOI: 10.1177/00220027221123319
Jori Breslawski

Commitment problems make civil wars difficult to end. Research on overcoming commitment problems focuses on warring parties, however civilians’ perceptions are central to successful transitions from war to peace. While civilians residing in areas previously controlled by armed groups may be highly distrustful that governments will implement peace agreements, I argue that some armed groups are both motivated and capable of improving trust in the state. Using survey data from civilians in the Bangsamoro, Philippines, I show that civilians that experienced rebel security provision or rebel justice provision from the MILF are more likely to trust that the Government of the Philippines will fully implement the peace agreement than civilians that did not experience rebel governance provision.



中文翻译:

叛军能否增强对政府的信任?来自菲律宾的证据

承诺问题使内战难以结束。克服承诺问题的研究侧重于交战各方,但平民的看法对于成功从战争过渡到和平至关重要。虽然居住在以前由武装团体控制的地区的平民可能对政府将执行和平协议高度不信任,但我认为一些武装团体既有动机又有能力提高对国家的信任。使用菲律宾邦萨摩罗平民的调查数据,我表明,与没有经历过摩洛伊斯兰解放阵线的反叛安全条款或反叛司法条款的平民相比,经历过摩洛伊斯兰解放阵线提供的反叛安全或反叛司法条款的平民更有可能相信菲律宾政府将全面执行和平协议叛军治理规定。

更新日期:2022-08-28
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