Large-scale shocks directly affect some firms and households and indirectly affect others through general equilibrium spillovers. In this paper, I describe how researchers can directly estimate spillovers using quasi-experimental or experimental variation. I then argue that spillover estimates suffer from distinct sources of mechanica l bias that standard empirical tools cannot resolve. These biases are particularly relevant in finance and macroeconomics, where multiple spillover channels and nonlinear effects are common. I offer guidance on how to detect and overcome mechanical biases. An application and several examples highlight that the suggested methods are broadly relevant and can inform policy and multiplier calculations.

中文翻译：

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估计大规模冲击的一般均衡溢出

大规模冲击直接影响一些公司和家庭，并通过一般均衡溢出间接影响其他公司和家庭。在本文中，我描述了研究人员如何使用准实验或实验变异直接估计溢出。然后，我认为溢出估计受到标准经验工具无法解决的不同来源的机械偏差的影响。这些偏见在金融和宏观经济学中尤为重要，在这些领域中，多重溢出渠道和非线性效应很常见。我提供有关如何检测和克服机械偏差的指导。一个应用程序和几个示例强调了建议的方法具有广泛的相关性，可以为政策和乘数计算提供信息。