We investigated the ability of the process-based, 1-dimensional hydrodynamic-ecosystem lake model GOTM-WET to reproduce the fluctuating dynamics and shifts between turbid and clear water states following restoration in temperate, shallow Lake Arreskov, Denmark. The lake model was calibrated on a comprehensive 12-year dataset with a multiple single-model ensemble approach to address model parameter and performance metric uncertainty. Compared to earlier modelling attempts on this lake, the GOTM-WET model, which enables simulation of water column hydrodynamics such as stratification events and two zooplankton groups, improved the simulation of the maximum chlorophyll a concentrations during cyanobacteria blooms and zooplankton dynamics. However, the timing of shifts between phytoplankton and submerged macrophytes dominance following fish removal was not well reproduced, although both states were simulated. We discuss potential improvements of the model to enhance the ability to simulate the effects of restoration on the food web and ecological states in this and similar lakes.

我们研究了基于过程的 1 维水动力生态系统湖泊模型 GOTM-WET 再现丹麦温带浅水 Arreskov 湖恢复后波动动态和混浊和清水状态之间转换的能力。湖泊模型在一个综合的 12 年数据集上进行校准，采用多单模型集成方法来解决模型参数和性能指标的不确定性。与早期对该湖的建模尝试相比，能够模拟分层事件和两个浮游动物群等水柱流体动力学的 GOTM-WET 模型改进了最大叶绿素a的模拟蓝藻水华和浮游动物动力学期间的浓度。然而，尽管对两种状态都进行了模拟，但在去除鱼类后，浮游植物和沉水植物优势之间的转变时间并未得到很好的再现。我们讨论了模型的潜在改进，以增强模拟恢复对该湖泊和类似湖泊的食物网和生态状态的影响的能力。