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The Role of Mid-latitude Westerly Jet in the Impacts of November Ural Blocking on Early-Winter Warmer Arctic-Colder Eurasia Pattern
Geophysical Research Letters ( IF 5.2 ) Pub Date : 2022-08-11 , DOI: 10.1029/2022gl099096
Xinping Xu 1 , Shengping He 2, 3, 4 , Botao Zhou 1 , Huijun Wang 1, 4, 5 , Stephen Outten 3
Affiliation  

Based on statistical analysis using observations and idealized model simulations, previous studies have revealed the potential response of early-winter atmospheric circulation and temperature anomalies to November Ural blocking (UB) anomalies. Using a large number of coupled simulations, this study found that the response is sensitive to the intensity of November mid-latitude westerly jet over Eurasia. Stronger-than-normal November UB without a significantly weakened westerly jet could not cause significant atmospheric response in early-winter. By contrast, stronger-than-normal November UB with a significantly weakened jet would be followed by a warmer Arctic-colder Eurasia (WACE) pattern in December. The significantly weakened westerly jet favors stronger upward propagation of planetary waves, which causes stronger weakening and longer persistence of the stratospheric polar vortex. This stratospheric response persists into December and propagates downward into the troposphere interfering with planetary waves (especially wavenumber-1). The lead-lag UB-WACE linkage modulated by mid-latitude jet may have implications for sub-seasonal predictability.

中文翻译:

中纬度西风急流在 11 月乌拉尔阻塞对早冬暖北极-冷欧亚格局影响中的作用

基于使用观测和理想化模型模拟的统计分析,先前的研究揭示了初冬大气环流和温度异常对 11 月乌拉尔阻塞 (UB) 异常的潜在响应。通过大量耦合模拟,本研究发现该响应对 11 月欧亚大陆上空中纬度西风急流的强度敏感。在没有明显减弱的西风急流的情况下,强于正常的 11 月 UB 不会在初冬引起显着的大气响应。相比之下,强于正常的 11 月 UB 且喷流明显减弱,随后 12 月将出现更暖的北极 - 更冷的欧亚大陆 (WACE) 模式。显着减弱的西风射流有利于行星波更强的向上传播,这导致平流层极涡的减弱和持续时间更长。这种平流层响应持续到 12 月并向下传播到对流层,干扰行星波(尤其是波数 1)。由中纬度喷气机调制的超前滞后 UB-WACE 联动可能对次季节可预测性产生影响。
更新日期:2022-08-11
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