Abstract

The problem is considered of estimating expected climatic changes over the territory of Russia in relation to the characteristics of rare precipitation extremes, which are widely used in designing various structures and technical systems. Based on numerous ensemble experiments with a high-resolution regional climate model and the extreme value modeling approach, future changes in the intensity and frequency of rare extremes for seasonal and annual 1- and 5-day precipitation maxima are analyzed. Particular attention is paid to the uncertainty of the projections on various timescales. Important spatial peculiarities of changes in the analyzed rare precipitation extremes are identified, which is reasonable to take into account when adapting to climate change at the regional level.

中文翻译：

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罕见降水极值的预计变化：俄罗斯领土区域气候模拟的结果

摘要

该问题被认为是估计俄罗斯境内预期的气候变化与罕见的极端降水特征有关，这些极端降水广泛用于设计各种结构和技术系统。基于高分辨率区域气候模型和极值建模方法的大量集合实验，分析了季节性和年度 1 天和 5 天降水最大值的罕见极端事件的强度和频率的未来变化。特别注意不同时间尺度上预测的不确定性。确定了分析的罕见降水极值变化的重要空间特征，在区域层面适应气候变化时考虑到这一点是合理的。